Gold prices hit record highs approaching 3060, global trade tensions escalate, investors seek safe-haven assets

Basic news

On Friday (March 28, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3054.50, and gold prices climbed to an all-time high of 3059.35 on Thursday. Investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Trump announced new auto tariffs; US crude oil trading was around 69.85 US dollars per barrel, oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, and traders assessed the tightening of crude oil supply and the new US tariffs and their expected impact on the world economy.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.33% on Thursday to close at 5693.31 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.53% to close at 17,804.03 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37% to close at 42,299.70 points.

Stock and Ford Stocks

The S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday, as investors assessed the latest trade tariff measures announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, which hit GM and Ford stocks.

Trump announced on Wednesday that it plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting April 3, and also impose taxes on auto parts starting May 3. Investors are also preparing for a wave of reciprocity tariffs Trump plans to unveil Wednesday, although the president suggests there may be room for flexibility.

Wall Street trading fluctuated. General Motors fell more than 7%, while Ford fell 3.9%. Auto parts manufacturers Aptiv and BorgWarner both fell about 5%. Tesla rose 0.4%, given that the avatradescn.company is mainly in the United StatesDomestic production, investors bet that it will be less affected by tariffs. Apple rose 1.05%, helping to limit the S&P 500 decline.

Trump's capricious trade policy has brought uncertainty to Wall Street, with investors worried that supply chains may be disturbed, investment blocked, and inflation threatens global economic growth.

Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital, said, "Investors are indeed cautious and vigilant about Trump and his policies. More important than the policy, it is always repeated over and over again. This makes people very nervous when making long-term investment decisions, both businesses and investors."

Eight of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell, with the energy sector leading the decline, down 0.85%, followed by the avatradescn.communications services sector, down 0.84%. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, and the unemployment rate seemed to remain stable in March.

The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter was revised to 2.4% year-on-month, while a consensus estimate of 2.3% was expected in a Reuters survey. Investors will focus on the Fed's favored inflation indicator - the February Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday.

Traders have reduced exposure to the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 fell about 7% from its record closing high set on February 19. The Nasdaq index fell nearly 12% from its record closing high on December 16. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq index are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2025. So far in 2025, the S&P 500 has fallen by about 3%, while the Nasdaq has fallen by nearly 8%. Gold prices climbed to historical highest on Thursday, avatradescn.com, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Trump announced new auto tariffs.

Spot gold climbed 1% to $3,050.32 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $3,059.30. Gold has hit 17 record highs this year. US gold futures climbed 1.3% to close at $3,061, and also hit a record high of $3,071.30 at the beginning of the session. "It looks like we'll see (gold futures hit) $3,100 soon, the main catalyst is safe-haven buying," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

After Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, governments from Ottawa to Paris have threatened to take retaliation. Global stocks fell as shares of several of the world's largest automakers fell.

BlueLineFuPhillip Streible, chief market strategist at tures, said strong central bank capital inflows and ETF demand also provided support for gold.

After the Federal Reserve decided last week to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, investors are currently waiting for data on U.S. personal consumption spending released on Friday to determine the trajectory of further rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300 from $3,100 an ounce on Wednesday, citing stronger-than-expected ETF capital inflows and continued central bank demand.

Spot silver rose 1.7% to $34.27 an ounce, reaching its highest level since October 2024 at the beginning of the session.

Platinum rose 0.7% to $981 per ounce; palladium rose 0.3% to $971.25. Oil market

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, as traders assessed tighter crude oil supply and new U.S. tariffs and their expected impact on the world economy.

Brent crude oil futures rose 0.3% to close at $74.03 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 27 cents to $69.92. Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday, reaching their highest point since February.

Party players are weighing the escalating trade war risks. U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks on Wednesday, which will take effect next week, while auto parts tariffs will begin on May 3. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said, "The biggest downside in the oil market is the concerns about tariffs, which may slow demand." Trump imposed a new tariff of 25% on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude on Tuesday.

SuvroSarkar, head of the energy industry team at DBS Bank of Asia, said that the bank does not expect oil prices to return to higher levels in early 2025 as uncertainty in the U.S. policy and the outlook for the tariff war put pressure on demand.

U.S. crude oil inventories data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. supply was tighter, with inventory falling by 3.3 million barrels last week, avatradescn.compared with an expected decrease of 956,000 barrels. Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week.

Forex Market

The dollar rose and fell on Thursday, as traders wondered how severe the tariff measures announced by U.S. President Donald Trump next week might be, while the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso weakened after Trump announced car tariffs.

Optimism about Trump's flexibility in determining tariffs has heated up, boosting risk sentiment and the dollar exchange rate earlier this week, but traders remain nervous before he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Eric Theoret, a Forex strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said, "The market seems to be swaying at the moment, and the market will react subconsciously to any of the worst statements announced at the beginning.Then slowly accept the fact that the situation may not be as bad as people fear, and may not even be as bad as announced, as it is part of the broader negotiations. "

Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks on Wednesday, which will take effect next week, with governments from Ottawa to Paris threatening retaliation.

Mexican peso fell 1.03% against the dollar to 20.329 Mexican peso. The Canadian dollar fell 0.33% against the dollar to 1.43 Canadian dollars.

In 2024, U.S. imported auto products are worth $474 billion, including $220 billion worth of passenger cars. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Germany are the largest suppliers.

U.S. Secretary of avatradescn.commerce Howard Lut Nick) expected the U.S. government to ease the impact of auto tariffs on Canada after a phone call with Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Mexico is also struggling to secure exemptions for its auto industry, the Mexican economy minister said on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against the dollar on the day, ending a six-day decline. The euro rose 0.38% against the dollar late in New York to $1.0793 after earlier falling to a three-week low of $1.0731. The euro gained technical support after falling to around $1.0726 in the 200-day moving average.

The euro rebounded earlier this month as the German government planned to increase spending and fix it The change in borrowing limits has led to a surge in German Treasury yields. The euro has given up some of the gains in the past week.

Central banks, including the European Central Bank, also signaled that interest rate cuts are unlikely to be cut in the near future, as they want to measure the impact of tariffs on the economy, which may damage economic growth but also intensify inflation.

European Central Bank vice president Luis de Guindos said on Thursday that the trade war with the United States could have a brief impact on inflation in the eurozone, but would have a much greater adverse impact on economic growth.

The dollar rose 0.35% against the yen to 151.1 yen, a three-week high, with a benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield

The U.S. data on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, but the market did not respond much to it.

Other data showed that the U.S. economic growth rate in the fourth quarter was slightly more stable than previously estimated. The pound rose 0.52% against the U.S. to $1.2953, rebounding from the decline in the previous trading day.

International News

Canadian Prime Minister Carney: The United States is no longer a reliable trading partner

On the 27th local time, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said in Ottawa that U.S. President Trump once again violated existing trade agreements and imposed unreasonable tariffs on Canada. The U.S. "NoAnother reliable trading partner, Canada has “a era of close relationship with the United States”. Carney also believes that the future Canadian government will establish a “substantially different relationship” with the United States. Carney said he respects Trump’s goal of developing U.S. manufacturing, but “I don’t agree with the way he does this”. Over time, these actions will eventually harm American workers and American consumers. He said Canada will “fight American tariffs with our own retaliatory trade actions.” Carney is cautious about how Canada will respond to U.S. automobile tariffs. He said he will “talk with US President Trump in the next one or two days.” He also said Canada will wait until a full understanding of the situation before responding.

News People: The United States has suspended membership fees to the WTO

Three sources said that the United States has suspended membership fees to the World Trade Organization as the Trump administration increases its efforts to cut government spending. The Trump administration is withdrawing from institutions it believes are inconsistent with its "U.S. priority" economic policies, such as the World Health Organization, and cut fees to other institutions. The WTO's annual budget for 205 million Swiss francs ($232.06 million), and the United States should have paid about 11% of it under a fee system proportional to its share of global trade. Two sources directly familiar with the situation said that a U.S. representative said at a budget meeting on March 4 that the U.S. would have paid for the WTO in 2024 and 2025 The payment of the budget will be suspended, pending review of international organization dues, and will notify the WTO results on an unspecified date. The third trade source confirmed their statement and said that the WTO is developing a Plan B in case of a long-term suspension of funds.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran responded to Trump's letter through Oman

On the 27th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araguezi said that Iran has responded to the letter to US President Trump in an appropriate manner. Araguezi said that the letter includes Iran's interpretation of the current situation and responded to Trump's views. He stressed that Iran's policy is not to negotiate directly with the United States under extreme pressure and military threats, but indirect negotiations with the United States that existed in the past can continue Continued.

Brazilian President: If the avatradescn.complaint to the WTO is fruitless, it will retaliate against the United States.

Brazilian President Lula, who is visiting Asia, said in an interview on the 26th that if Brazil avatradescn.complains to the World Trade Organization, it cannot resolve the trade issues between Brazil and the United States, Brazil will use its policy tools to retaliate against American products. From March 12 this year, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum products imported to the United States. The United States is the main export market for Brazil's steel and aluminum products.

Getting rid of its dependence on Russian crude oil, the Czech Republic will use the Tar oil pipeline to replace the "friendship" pipeline.

Merro, a state-owned oil pipeline operator, issued a statement on March 27 local time.Mingzhong announced that the upgraded Thar oil pipeline will be launched for the first time in April, adding crude oil imported through Italian ports to replace the "friendship" pipeline of imported crude oil from Russia. According to local media reports, the "Friendship" pipeline will be used until June this year, but it has been in a state of interruption since early March due to payment issues related to sanctions against Russia.

Deutsche Bank: If the Federal Reserve loses its role as lender of last resort, the dollar reserve currency status will face significant risks

Deutsche Bank said that if the Federal Reserve withdraws a tried-and-tested liquidity support mechanism, it will constitute the biggest risk to the dollar reserve currency status since the end of World War II. Earlier this week, sources said Europe's central bank and regulatory officials had informal discussions on the possibility that the Trump administration could push the Fed to exit the global financing market during a period of market pressure.

The Brazilian Central Bank lowered its economic growth and inflation expectations in 2025

The Brazilian Central Bank stated in its quarterly "Monetary Policy Report" released on the 27th local time that Brazil's economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025, a decrease from the 2.1% growth expectation in the quarterly report in December last year. The report also stated that in the first three quarters of 2025, Brazil's annual cumulative inflation rate is expected to be in the range of 5.5% to 5.6%, and is expected to drop to 5.1% by the end of the year, but is higher than the upper limit of the country's expected annual inflation rate to tolerate. The Brazilian National Monetary avatradescn.commission sets the inflation management targets from 2024 to 2026 to 3%, allowing up and down to float by 1.5 percentage points. Recently, the Brazilian Central Bank has issued reports many times, expecting its country's economic growth to slow down in 2025.

Moody's is close to downgrading the U.S. rating

This week, tariff risks prompted Moody's to downgrade the U.S. government's AAA credit rating. The credit rating avatradescn.company has released new forecasts that both U.S. budget deficits and interest rates will rise, both of which will weaken U.S. debt repayment. Any move to downgrade will be a political decision that has triggered negative reactions from other rating avatradescn.companies in the past. S&P and Fitch have downgraded U.S. credit rating to AA+.

Domestic News

The 5th Consumer Expo will be held in Hainan in April

The 5th China International Consumer Products Expo will be held in Hainan Province from April 13 to 18. Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of avatradescn.commerce, said that the Consumer Expo has become the largest consumer boutique exhibition in the Asia-Pacific region. It not only provides strong support for promoting the continuous expansion of consumption and meeting people's needs for a better life, but also provides an important platform for global enterprises to share the Chinese market and Chinese enterprises to go to the world stage.

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