The US dollar has fallen below the 103 mark, and the US reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect!

On April 9, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 102.67. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell and fell below the 103 mark, eventually closing down 0.51% to 102.97. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.304%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.738%. Spot gold continued to rise and fall during the day. It once rebounded above the $3020 mark before the US session, and then gave up all the gains, falling again to $3000 mark, falling to $2974.76, and finally closed flat at $2982.56/ounce. Spot silver closed down 0.85% at $29.73 per ounce. International oil prices continued to fall, falling 4% again. WTI crude oil fell by more than 5% during the session, hitting a new low since April 12, 2021, and finally closed down 4.74% at $57.86 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 4.52% at $61.33 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 102.67. Last week's optimistic labor market data boosted sentiment and helped the index rebound from its recent lows. Investors welcomed the statement made by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamison Greer on the Senate Finance avatradescn.committee, saying the U.S. is in talks with nearly 50 countries. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 103.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is in the range of 101.70–101.90.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.0993. Euro/dollar rebounded slightly on Tuesday, ending a two-day decline and recording some last-minute gains before the Trump administration's extensive "peer" tariffs came into effect on April 9. Fed rhetoric from key policy makers began to conflict with market expectations of the rising Fed's interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, putting the market under the negative impact of widespread tariffs. Technically, a break below 50MA1.0888 will push the euro/dollar to support at 1.0750–1.0765.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.2787. GBP/USD ended a severe two-day downtrend on Tuesday, finding a technical rebound from the 200-day index moving average (EMA) slightly above 1.2700. Price trend remains in a no-man’s land before the U.S. planned to implement tariffs, and investors are waiting for key U.S. inflation and sentiment data released later this week. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above resistance at 1.2780–1.2800, it will move to the next resistance at 1.2850–1.2870.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Wednesday, gold trading was around 2981.27. In the previous trading day, gold prices rebounded and surged to $3022 during the session. However, due to the rising yields of US Treasury and the decline of US stocks, they finally gave up the gains and closed at around 2982. Although the weakening of the US dollar and trade tensions provide safe-haven support for gold, the market's concerns about weak demand for US Treasury bidding, the prospect of the Federal Reserve's policy and intensified stock market volatility still dominate short-term sentiment.

Technical side: On the daily chart, you can see that when the gold price avatradescn.completely falls back to around $2957, buyers pour in here, avatradescn.com set clear risks below the trend line to bet rebounding to new all-time highs. On the other hand, sellers want to see the price fall below this level to increase bearish bets for the next target of $2832. On the 4-hour chart, you can see the key resistance level near $3057. From a risk management perspective, sellers will get a better risk-reward setting near that resistance level, with the goal of fallingBreak the trend line. Buyers, on the other hand, want to see prices break through that resistance level to increase bullish bets on record highs.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 57.23. International crude oil prices fell sharply. Despite a rebound in global stock markets, concerns about a global recession caused by the escalation of Sino-US trade conflict dominated market sentiment, causing oil prices to fall to their lowest level in four years. According to White House officials, the United States will impose 104% tariffs on imported goods from China from the early hours of Wednesday as China has not lifted its 34% counter-tariff before the Tuesday noon deadline set by Trump.

Technical: From the daily chart level, crude oil has fallen below the lower edge of the range, and oil prices have reached around 60. The moving average system turns diverges downward, and the medium-term objective trend direction goes downward. Due to the downward trend caused by tariffs, pay attention to its continuity and further determine that the medium-term downward trend will fall to 55 or even 50. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil has been falling sharply, and the momentum that has plummeted has reached a position around 60. The short position is arranged in the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction is downward. The current medium- and short-term directions are consistently downward. In the morning, oil prices are in the downward rhythm of the main trend. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline after a weak rebound in the day.

Forex market trading reminder on April 9, 2025

10:00 New Zealand to April 9 Fed interest rate decision

12:01 US reciprocal tariffs officially take effect

14:15 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made a speech

22:00 US February wholesale sales monthly rate

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

22:30 US to April 4

EIA Strategic Oil Reserve Inventory /p>

The next day, the Federal Reserve Barkin participated in the dialogue event

The next day, the 10-year Treasury bond auction from the United States to April 9-win rate

The next day, the 10-year Treasury bond auction from the United States to April 9-win rate

The next day, the 10-year Treasury bond auction from the United States to April 9-win multiple

The next day, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting

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