Gold breaks 3000, US stocks plummeted, Russia and Ukraine turbulent

The dollar performed mixed against major currencies this week as U.S. President Donald Trump's unstable tariff strategy put investors in a state of uncertainty. Week 2, Trump announced a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imported from Canada to the United States, but withdrew it after Ontario, Canada suspended the 25% electricity surcharge to some northern states.

Nevertheless, the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum was in effect on Wednesday, with Canada and the EU retaliating on Thursday. With the introduction of reciprocal tariffs and the possibility of raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% looming, and April 2 is a key date for collection, the possibility of further escalation remains.

All of this uncertainty led to a significant deterioration in risk appetite and the Wall Street Index plummeted. The dollar has also been caught in a firefight with Trump’s tariff threats and attacks as investors shift their attention away from inflation concerns to their broader impact on economic growth. They currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by about 72 basis points this year, which is almost an additional 25 basis points avatradescn.compared to the 50 basis points shown in the December dot chart.

Forex Market:The US dollar index fluctuated higher this week and fell to its lowest level since mid-October last year at the beginning of the week. After Trump's latest threat to impose tariffs on imported goods in Europe, the US dollar index rose and fell above the 104 mark and fell again, closing at 103.7 this week, closing down for the second consecutive week. In terms of non-US currencies, the euro, pound, and Australian dollarThe dollar's rise slowed down, and the dollar rose slightly against the yen. Among them, the euro continued to hover around its highest level since November last year.

Gold Market:Spot gold rose continuously and hit a new high, breaking through the $3,000/ounce mark for the first time in history, and then fell back, closing at $2,986/ounce, with a cumulative increase of 2.57% this week. Gold's attractiveness remains strong due to rising tariff uncertainty and market betting that the Fed will relax monetary policy. As gold prices hit a new high, the total market value of gold once exceeded US$20 trillion, ranking first in the world in terms of market value, and more than six times the market value of Apple.

Crude oil market: International oil prices showed a volatile trend this week, with little overall change. At the beginning of the week, it returned to a half-year low after fearing that U.S. tariffs would slow the global economy and cut energy demand, and then rebounded slightly as U.S. government data showed oil and gas inventories were tighter than expected.

Review of the news this week

1. Progress in the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations

Ukraine may accept the U.S. proposal to reach a 30-day ceasefire agreement with Russia in exchange for military aid and intelligence sharing. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the ceasefire could lay the foundation for a broader peace agreement. Although Russian President Putin agreed to a ceasefire, he put forward a series of conditions, including resolving the issue of Ukrainian troops' retreat or surrender, and stressing that the supervision and details of the ceasefire need to be further discussed. In addition, Putin said that if the United States and Russia can reach an agreement on energy cooperation, European natural gas prices may fall further.

On the United States, the Trump administration threatens to impose "destructive" economic sanctions if Russia does not accept the ceasefire proposal. The G7 is also discussing the possibility of further sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia has submitted a list of agreements to the United States to end the conflict, including Kiev's prohibition from joining NATO, NATO's prohibition of garrison in Ukraine, and the international avatradescn.community's recognition of the four provinces of Crimea and Ukraine as Russian territory.

2. Trump's tariff policy triggered a global rebound

After U.S. President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum came into effect, Canada and the EU quickly took retaliation measures. Canada announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on US goods worth $29.8 billion and could limit crude oil exports. The EU plans to impose counter-tariff tariffs on U.S. goods worth 26 billion euros. Trump responded that the EU is the "most hostile" trading partner and threatens to impose 200% tariffs on EU wine and alcohol products.

Mexico chose not to respond for the time being and waited for the deadline on April 2. Trump's tariff policies not only triggered a counterattack from trading partners, but also posed a threat to the global economic recovery.

3. Canada's interest rate cuts to cope with economic uncertainty

In response to the possible economic shocks of Trump's tariff policy, the Bank of Canada cut its key policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, and warns that "a new crisis" is avatradescn.coming. This is the seventh consecutive rate cut by the Bank of Canada, making it one of the most radical central banks in the world. Governor McClum said interest rates will be adjusted carefully in the future to cope with the dual pressures of rising costs and weak demand.

4. US inflation data is improving, and the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts

The US February CPI data was lower than expected in all, and the core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also unexpectedly remained flat. After the data was released, the market expected the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in June and increased its bet on at least two interest rate cuts this year. In addition, the Trump administration plans to nominate Fed Director Bowman as vice chairman of regulation to fill the vacancy after Barr's resignation.

5. The risk of the U.S. government shutdown reappears

The risk of the U.S. government shutdown is approaching again, and the House of Representatives passed a stop-spending bill to maintain federal agencies until September 30. However, the bill still needs the support of at least 8 Democratic lawmakers before it can be passed. Senate Minority Leader Schumer expressed support for avoiding the government shutdown, saying the shutdown would allow Trump and Musk to "do whatever they want." The U.S. budget deficit in the first five months of the fiscal year has reached a record $1.15 trillion, highlighting the challenges the government faces in reducing spending.

6. OPEC maintains oil demand forecast

OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, and is expected to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day and 1.43 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 respectively. OPEC+ oil production increased by 363,000 barrels per day in February, of which Kazakhstan contributed more than half of the growth, becoming the main drag on the production cut plan. OPEC warned that uncertainty in trade policy could exacerbate market volatility.

The above content is all about "[Aihua Official Website]: Gold breaks 3,000, US stocks plummeted, and the turbulent situation in Russia and Ukraine". It was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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