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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Avatrade Avatrade will bring you "[Ava Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: As the conflict in Iran deepens, the market focuses on geopolitics." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
As tensions in the Middle East intensified, Iran and Israel carried out missile attacks, market participants remained cautious early this week. In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release the Imperial Manufacturing Survey in June. Later in the U.S. Treasury Department will hold a 20-year Treasury bond auction.
The military conflict between Israel and Iran began earlier on Friday and has been ongoing for the fourth consecutive day. On Sunday, Israel said they killed the head of the intelligence department of the Iranian armed forces. More than 200 people have been killed in Israel's attacks, according to the Iranian Ministry of Health. Meanwhile, several news outlets reported that Iranian missiles hit Israel's largest oil refinery in Haifa Bay.
Last weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump called on Iran and Israel to reach an agreement. "We will soon achieve peace between Israel and Iran! There are many calls and meetings going on now," he added on TruthSocial.
Basic foreign exchange market trends:
In the early European session, the US dollar (USD) index fell slightly to around 98.00, and US stock index futures were still in the upward area. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions and release a revised summary of economic forecasts (SEP), the so-called dot map.
Euro/USD rose slightly to 1.1600 in early trading Monday after falling on Friday.
Data from China earlier in the day showed that retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year. This reading was 5% better than the market expected. During this period, industrial production grew by 5.8%. Australian dollar/USD holds its position, trading above 0.6500 on Mondayarea.
GBP/USD closed higher last week despite a daily decline on Friday. The pair insisted on a slight daily gain and traded within the reach of 1.3600 in the early morning of Europe.
The USD/JPY is difficult to find direction early this week and fluctuates in a relatively narrow channel above 144.00. The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday during the Asian session.
Bulle market fundamentals:
Gold started bullish this week and climbed to its highest level in nearly two months above $3,450, before losing traction. As of press time, gold/USD fell about 0.5% on the day, falling below $3,420.
Crude oil prices soared Friday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising more than 10% this week. WTI revised lower early on Monday, trading at a price slightly above $71.00, down about 2% on the day.
Analysis of major currency trends:
Euro: Euro/USD consolidates below 1.1630, and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as the support level of 1.1372 is held, it is expected to rise further. Breakthrough 1.1572 will continue the rebound from 1.0176. The next target is to forecast 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 61.8% from 1.1064 to 1.1927. However, a breakout of the 1.1372 support level will indicate a short-term peak and turn downward to achieve a deeper callback.
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