Non-farm farms surpass expectations in March, Trump launches a global "tariff war"

This week, the dollar suffered losses against all major currencies, and the bloody massacre continued the stock market after U.S. President Donald Trump announced more aggressive tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

Trump said his administration would impose a benchmark tariff of 10% on all goods imported into the U.S., while also placing higher tariffs on some of the country’s largest trading partners. For example, on the basis of the already 20% levied, China was levied at 34% new tariffs, while closer allies such as Japan and the UK were not exempted, with the former facing a 24% tariff rate and the latter facing a baseline tariff of 10%. The EU will charge a 20% tax rate. The 10% basic tariff will take effect on April 5, and higher reciprocity rates will take effect on April 9, and both China and the EU are quick to respond that they will retaliate if these tariffs take effect.

As the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has pointed to a severe contraction of the U.S. economy by 3.7%, investors have become more concerned about the possible recession this year, which is reflected in the fact that they have increased their bets on the Fed's rate cut, although the central bank insists on its previous forecast for a 50 basis point cut this year. Currently, investors are expected to cut interest rates by nearly 100 basis points by December, which means a 4 basis points cut.

Forex Market:The US dollar index was defensive at the close of this week and challenged its critical 200-week simple moving average, located in the middle of 102.00, all happening against the backdrop of a general decline in U.S. yields. The euro/dollar rose for the second straight week and returned to the area above 1.1100 after the White House announced new tariffs. Although GBP/USD hits more than 1.3200The monthly high, but it has little change this week, closing at a low of 1.2900. The USD/JPY reversed its three-week rise after the "Liberation Day" and fell to the 144.50 area for the first time. The AUD/USD collapsed to near 0.6000 levels on Friday, the first time it has touched the region since April 2020.

Gold Market:After China announced a 34% counter-tariff against the United States, risk sentiment in the global financial market has soared, and investors sold gold to deal with margin notices in other asset classes. Gold rose in Wednesday's initial reaction to the U.S. tariff announcement and hit an all-time high of $3,167 before a deep correction as it entered the weekend. Investors will continue to follow tariff-related headlines and keep an eye on U.S. inflation data.

Crude oil market: International oil prices plummeted by nearly 8%, setting a record low since the mid-2021 epidemic, as China announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, aggravated the escalation of Sino-US trade war and triggered deep market concerns about the global recession.

Review of the news of this week

8 arrows are fired at once! China firmly counters the US's "reciprocal tariffs"

On April 2, Eastern Time, the US announced that it would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners. China firmly opposes this and expresses that it will firmly take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests. On April 4, China made consecutive statements and issued countermeasures.

These measures include: imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate; suspending the qualifications for sorghum to be imported from one American avatradescn.company, and suspending the qualifications for poultry and bone meal to be imported from three American avatradescn.companies, and suspending the import of poultry and meat products of two American avatradescn.companies; including 11 American entities including Scalio avatradescn.company on the list of unreliable entities; including 16 American entities including Gaodian Aviation Technology avatradescn.company on the list of export control control; launching an anti-dumping investigation on imported medical CT tubes originating from the United States and India; implementing export control measures on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth-related items such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, tertium, scandium, and yttrium; prosecutions in the WTO dispute settlement mechanism; conducting an anti-monopoly investigation on the American chemical giant DuPont China Group Co., Ltd.; etc.

Expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have risen, four times this year?

The latest non-farm report released on Friday showed that U.S. employment growth exceeded expectations in March and the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating that the labor market is temporarily maintaining a healthy state before the global economy was hit by widespread tariffs. US President Trump avatradescn.commented on non-farm data and said that great employment data is far better than expected.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the number of non-farm employment increased by 228,000 last month, significantly higher than market expectations, but the figures in the previous two months were downgraded by 48,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% as labor force participation rose. In terms of wage growth, the average hourly annual rate and monthly rate recorded 3.8% and 0 respectively.3%.

After the data was released, traders cut their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in May, and June is expected to be the possible start of the rate cut. Short-term interest rate futures traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by June and continue to bet on four rate cuts by the end of the year.

Trump's latest tariffs shock the world!

This week, the U.S. president signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing that the United States will set up a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and impose higher tariffs on certain countries. For example, the EU's reciprocal tariffs are 20%, Japan's 24%, Vietnam's 46%, and South Korea's 25%. According to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, goods that meet the regulations will continue to enjoy tariff exemptions, while goods that do not meet the requirements will maintain a tariff of 25%.

The benchmark tariff will avatradescn.come into effect on April 5, while the reciprocal tariff will avatradescn.come into effect on April 9. In addition, the 25% automobile tariff will avatradescn.come into effect on April 3, and the auto parts tariff will avatradescn.come into effect on May 3; gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and wood products will not be subject to "reciprocal tariffs". Interestingly, in addition to countries with large and small trade with the United States, there are even some "remote islands where the main residents are penguins" listed by the Trump administration.

U.S. President Trump said that these tariff policies will promote market "prosperity" and that the United States will "have $6 to 7 trillion into our country." He also said he would be open to tariff negotiations if other countries put forward more favorable conditions. U.S. avatradescn.commerce Secretary Lutnik warned that if other countries take retaliation measures, U.S. tariffs will increase; President Trump will only negotiate if other countries resolve tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Musk may withdraw from the White House? "Fake news!"

Recently, news that Musk will leave the U.S. Department of Efficiency has attracted widespread attention. President Trump has allegedly revealed to his core team that Musk will withdraw from the government's efficiency ministry and return to his own business in the avatradescn.coming weeks. Although Trump expressed satisfaction with Musk's work, the two recently decided that Musk would no longer hold public office. Some Trump administration insiders and outside allies have begun to feel uneasy about Musk's unpredictability and even think he has become a political burden. Musk may retain the informal role of adviser and occasionally appear in the White House, people familiar with the matter said.

The above content is all about "[Aihua Official Website]: Non-agricultural non-agricultural areas exceeded expectations in March. Trump launched a global "tariff war"" and was carefully avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

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